“To Foresee Black Swans, to Watch Out for Gray Rhinos”

Waiting for medicine's black swans.

“Watch Out! Pneumonia Secondary to Achromobacter Denitrificans”

Pneumonia is the cause of significant morbidity and mortality especially in developing countries. The frequency and importance of emerging new pathogens have significant implications for therapy. We report a case of pneumonia caused by a very rare organism, Achromobacter denitrificans which was treated successfully with intravenous meropenem injections for 14 days. Review of available literatur...

Yield of Black Swans

h EXCEPT FOR GETTING your chip to market on time, optimizing yield is perhaps the most important thing we can do to improve IC profitability. We address this problem in several ways: design for manufacturability (DFM) through layout rules, process control, and increasingly clean cleanrooms. In an ideal world, this would solve our yield problems. We know it doesn’t, so we build a diagnostic capa...

Black Swans and white tablets

The Black Swan, a metaphor for highly improbable, high impact events, warns us to understand the limits of our predictions and expect the “unknown unknowns” everywhere, from war to science and industry. From the earliest stages of discovery to post-marketing events, we argue that fundamentally the structure of pharmaceutical industry is driven by and impacted by both positive and negative Black...

a new approach to credibility premium for zero-inflated poisson models for panel data

هدف اصلی از این تحقیق به دست آوردن و مقایسه حق بیمه باورمندی در مدل های شمارشی گزارش نشده برای داده های طولی می باشد. در این تحقیق حق بیمه های پبش گویی بر اساس توابع ضرر مربع خطا و نمایی محاسبه شده و با هم مقایسه می شود. تمایل به گرفتن پاداش و جایزه یکی از دلایل مهم برای گزارش ندادن تصادفات می باشد و افراد برای استفاده از تخفیف اغلب از گزارش تصادفات با هزینه پائین خودداری می کنند، در این تحقیق ...